Ai vs. legacy industry

Artificial intelligence is undoubtedly a growing segment of technology and society, but history shows that technological advances don’t eliminate the need for work, though they can shift its pattern.

This applies to agricultural production. In the UK, more than 20 per cent of the workforce was employed in the agricultural sector at the turn of the 20th century, while today, thanks to mechanisation, less than one percent work in agricultural roles. However, that small group produces vastly more food than their predecessors a century ago, which is a clear benefit to society.

Ai is likely to drive other significant productivity gains too, and that should also feed through into the cost of providing some public services. However it’s difficult to see many inroads being made into the welfare bill, particularly if fewer working hours per capita lead to the introduction of a Universal Income paid by governments to their citizens.

Taxes & a need for change

If income tax receipts should fall as automation rises, there are a number of levers governments can pull to push up tax revenues, while other existing taxes may have to pull more weight.

Consumption taxes like VAT could be hiked, and if people are working less then they may have time to consume more, which would swell coffers from this kind of taxation even without a rise in the headline rate.

Taxes on business or wealth could also enter the equation if governments find the rise of the robots opens up a black hole in their budgets.

Alternatively, new taxes may be introduced which directly tax automated production, or the gains made by owners of that production.

Indeed, the UK is now forging ahead with a digital sales tax which shows some governments are not simply going to give technology a free pass when it comes to contributing to the tax take. However, ti should be noted an alliance of Ireland, Sweden, Denmark and Germany blocked the proposal in Brussels for an EU digital sales tax on 29 November 2018.

Why Ai could spur a change in taxes

Artificial intelligence will undoubtedly deliver progress in many important areas, particularly in health care.

The accountancy firm PwC reckons that UK GDP will be around 10 per cent higher in 2030 as a result of the Ai revolution, mainly through its ability to drive consumption by the production of better and more tailored products. In the long term the impact of Ai is likely to be bigger yet, and the tax system will have to adjust accordingly.

It’s too early to call how this will happen – however, one thing we can be relatively sure of is that different models will be adopted across the globe, as political ideologies feed into the equation.

Laith Khalaf

Laith Khalaf is a senior analyst with Hargreaves Lansdown and has worked for the retail investor platform since 2001, after graduating from Cambridge University.

His research encompasses funds, markets and investment trends.

Laith is a well-known commentator and frequently features on television and radio, as well as in the national press.

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SMEs: New Legislation

The UK Government has decided to introduce laws that will support small businesses (SMEs) in their efforts to retrieve money from unpaid invoices.

Previous unfair contracts prevented small suppliers from accessing invoice finance; unbalanced contracts with larger companies prevented many SMEs from securing invoice finance from providers such as banks and other investors.

The new regulations were put to Parliament on 10 September, 2018, and are set to facilitate a £1 billion long-term boost to the economy, says the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy.

How it works

The laws form part of the Government’s modern Industrial Strategy, and are designed to build an environment where small businesses are better able to thrive. They will ensure that any contractual restrictions entered into after 31 December 2018, (with certain exceptions), can be disregarded by small businesses and finance providers, effectively preventing larger businesses from abusing their market position.

The exceptions relate to contracts for financial services; those agreed with consumers or those connected to the sale of a business.

The value of invoice finance is obvious: it allows a business to raise funds by assigning their right to be paid ‘receivables’ to a finance provider in exchange for funds – which is typically around 80 per cent of the value of the invoices.

The ‘advance’ is obtained within days, as opposed to weeks, allowing a small company to manage turnover without tipping into the red. The remaining 20 per cent (minus fees and charges) is then paid when the customer settles the invoice.

It’s important to note that Invoice finance is not borrowing; the supplier receives what is effectively an advance against a future payment.

This legislation addresses anomalies relating to purchase contracts that include terms preventing access to invoice finance. This is mainly due to suppliers’ lack of foresight, where they have negotiated poorly, ultimately leaving them in a weak contractual position.

The new laws will address these detrimental contract terms. 

Expert views

Small Business Minister, Kelly Tolhurst, says: “These new laws will give small businesses more access to the finance they need to succeed and will help ensure they have a level playing field from which to set fair contracts with the businesses they supply.

“The proposed laws come as a number of larger businesses stop their suppliers from assigning ‘receivables’ – the right to receive the proceeds from an invoice. This assignment is essential for invoice finance to operate.”

She states that restrictive contract terms are too often used by larger businesses to maintain a hold over their suppliers. Small suppliers then find themselves unable to negotiate changes to a proposed contract because of their lack of power in the marketplace, Tolhurst argues.

The minister views the UK’s 5.7 million small businesses as the backbone of the UK’s economy, “and central to our modern Industrial Strategy”, with more than 1,000 starting up every day.

CEO of the innovation tax specialist GovGrant, Luke Hamm, which has a spotlight interest on research and development, says he welcomes the revised regulations.

Hamm states, “We hear regularly from smaller suppliers who are tied into restrictive contracts with larger players, for example in the supermarket sector, and it is extremely difficult for them to negotiate changes in contractual terms.

The CEO has urged the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, to prioritise small business in November’s forthcoming Budget, citing innovation and R&D as a policy areas that seriously require a boost.

Hamm says, “We need to prioritise innovation and industrial strategy … As the announcement on invoice finance shows, the government’s industrial strategy has its heart in the right place, but it’s still unambitious, and needs more imagination and drive.

“Aiming for 2.4 per cent of GDP invested in R&D by 2027 is mediocre; that’s where Germany is today.

“We’d also like to see more help for the smallest companies, where they are scaling up but opt not to draw market salaries. The scheme doesn’t allow for that.”

Hamm also highlights the importance of the forthcoming annual HMRC report on R&D tax credit statistics, which he argues will provide an important snapshot of just how widely the UK’s innovative companies, including SMEs, are making use of the government’s tax credit system.

by Ingrid Smith

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